The Euro: Just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean you should fade it

[signinlocker id=675]The two themes that have been lurking in the shadows in support of the euro are now strutting their colors. The first, is that the US is closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the beginning, while the ECB is just starting its normalization. The second is that in this phase of the global risk cycle when US valuations look full to many, investors tend to migrate out the spectrum from core to peripheral investments. This too has tended to favor a weaker dollar.

Last week the euro had a big break out. So did the yield on the 10-year bund. It’s not a coincidence. And just because we all see it doesn’t mean the odds will be in your favor if you fade it. I could be wrong, but this has all the hallmarks of a move that is fresh and could have legs. Probably not wise to try and fade–no matter how heavy the positioning–until you see price and correlation signs that the above narrative is weakening. In fact, the break is fresh enough, and vol levels are low enough (despite last week’s pop), that outright calls or call spreads probably still make sense. (NB: the low tick in euro vol in 2014 was just before the big euro move lower.)

Here are the charts:

Euro over the past year
Euro over the past five years
Ten year bund yield over the past five years
Euro 3m implied ATM vol over the past five years

But, on the other hand….spec euro positioning in futures is the most long its been in the past 10 years

CFTC Net non-commercial futures positions in the euro

Manage your risk. Good luck.[/signinlocker]

Tricks for Hanging On in a Melt Up

Human nature anchors on the high tick of mark-to-market gains. It’s virtually impossible not to. And this makes it excruciatingly hard to stay fully positioned during a melt up. Every intra-day dip, every tape bomb, every ominous indicator du jour begs us to lock in paper gains before they slip away.

Even if you are fully cognizant of this problem you can’t make this feeling disappear. But there are some modest tricks that can help you, at the margin, manage it:[signinlocker id=675]

1. Remind yourself every day that markets tend to go up over time, and that the greater sin in money management is overthinking your way to the sidelines and not being able to get back in, not getting caught in a vicious draw down.

2. Throw a virgin into the volcano. Take a smaller, less strategic position (we all have them in bull markets) and sacrifice it. It won’t be material to your performance, and will go a disproportionately long way towards stretching that itch.

3. Sell half of a strategic position, but commit to stopping yourself back in if it doesn’t come in and starts to get away from you. (See the recent post about $GM and $F.)  If you are tactically selling part of a strategic position, having a plan for getting back in that doesn’t require you nailing the call is as important as having stops.

4. If one of your large, strategic positions has had a particularly feverish run, sell short-tenor upside OTM calls against half of your position. Either current month or next month–any further out than that and you’re giving away too much upside in a name you like strategically. I am not a huge fan of selling OTM calls, but it is a less damaging way of, again, scratching that itch.

5. Plan for the draw down. Make a list of areas that you think would sell off first and hardest and track them for signs that their price action is weakening and/or their prevailing correlation matrix is changing. This usually comprises the areas that hot money has most recently flowed into as a result of the narrative–in today’s case ‘global reflation’. This list should always evolve with the narrative. Being prepared for the inevitable drawn down doesn’t guarantee you will be able to sidestep it, but it increases your odds and makes staying fully invested easier.[/signinlocker]

For some people all of this is just too hard. It certainly is not easy for me, and I’ve been doing this for a long time. If you find yourself chronically under-invested because of a macro hair trigger, maybe passive investing or systems-based trend following is a better approach. Discretionary trading–especially in macro–is not for everyone. It’s better to go with what works best for your forma mentis. There is certainly no shame in that.

Behavioral Autos: $F $GM

[signinlocker id=675]For the past few weeks interest in the big auto companies ($F, $GM) has picked up. The narrative is simple and, I believe, will persist.

1.  Global growth is good.

2. We are past the ‘peak auto’ obsession.

3. Natural FOMO favorites at this juncture. At 6-7 PEs and high dividend yields, it is one of the only sectors to offer both beta and some sense of value protection. For skeptics who have been light beta or ppl who have to buy because of inflows, this the downside protection provides enormous psychological comfort.

4. Free option on getting lucky with innovation. GM and F have shown signs of life on the innovation front. We don’t know how successful they will be, but we do know they are not priced for it. And some 2nd mouse is likely to get TSLA’s cheese.

Here are the charts:

Ford over the past five years
GM over the past five years

Ford is breaking out from a low base and looks poised to run. GM has already had a primary breakout and appears to be consolidating in preparation for a leg higher.

This is how you can play them if you are not already involved:

Ford over the past year
GM over the past year

Because short term both names–especially F–are a bit stretched, ideally you’d want to see a low volume pullback into the areas indicated by the red circles. The way a pullback happens in terms of both volume and pattern matter. You want the pattern to look like it’s quietly wedging back. But given the longer term patterns, the odds of a pullback into the red circles being a good one are pretty high. If they drift back into the red circles, you could buy a full position with stops on a close somewhere below the bottom of the consolidation structure in GM, and somewhere not too far below the breakout in F.

(NB: The distance of the stops from the entry point is important in considering the absolute size of the position.)

If, however, GM doesn’t pullback and starts to break out, you can still buy it but no more than a half position, and the stop would have to be higher, somewhere not too far below the breakout point from the consolidation pattern (eg ~43.5).

For Ford it would be a little bit harder to buy a continuation with no pullback because the natural stop is further away than is the case with GM and it doesn’t have a secondary consolidation pattern to emerge from. But in theory it could still be bought if it continues, just in much smaller size.[/signinlocker]

Good luck and happy driving.

Of Bubbles and Polls

[signinlocker id=675]On Friday I put out two bare-bones polls asking, yes or no, if there is a bubble in stocks and bonds. The results were more balanced (I expected more Noes in both) and more similar to each other (almost identical) than I thought would be the case.

[/signinlocker]

What’s up with the dollar and yields?

[signinlocker id=675]Up until recently, when yields when higher the dollar got bid. But this has now demonstrably changed: the broad dollar has been getting weaker in the face of rising USD rates.

My take is that the market is now confidently saying the Fed is going to find itself behind the curve, either by design or by accident. This is why this rally has much more of a reflationary feel to it when you look across sectors.

If you want to track the reflation trade, I think you can boil it down to these two charts:

Nominal 5 yr UST yield over the last 6 months
5 yr TIP (real) yield over the last 6 months

For the past 2-3 weeks US 5 year nominal yields climbed higher, while 5 year real yields fell (BEs of course, rose). This is a potentially important change in correlation.

Three investment inferences

1.  The dollar is responding to the real rate and not the nominal rate until further notice.

2.   The spread in real-to-nominal and the general price action are saying reflation trade.

3.   At some point the reflation trade will overshoot, and the correlation of these two yields will likely be a good ‘tell’ when it does.[/signinlocker]

2018. You ready?

I hope this is the shortest 2018 post you will read. In my battle against overthinking, I’ve tried to boil this down to bare bones. Feel free to follow up with questions. Try out montrealmovers.com when you like to travel and move.

Here are the three thoughts to which I attach the most importance for 2018. Things never turn out ex post as neatly as you lay them out ex ante, but this is my base case/point of departure for the year:

We are probably underestimating the positive effect of tax cuts on earnings. I think we have two biases holding us back. One, many of us dislike the policy and reflexively want to short anything Trump does. Two, after the fantastic run the market has been on, it is hard at some deep intuitive level to believe it can continue apace. And if we really are underestimating the effect on earnings, multiples are very likely to continue expanding as well. The US has a disproportionately large effect on global market psychology, so this would also be very positive for risk assets around the world.

Easy to imagine a shortage of assets narrative emerging this year. Moreover, it might even be true. We know it’s probably true in bonds. Might be true in equities as well. True or not, though, it would provide good cover for multiples to expand further, and could open the door to some really ludicrous valuations down the road as well.

Solid global cycle + markets tend to go up over time = It’s still too risky to position bearishly.

Yes, I know markets always top on good news, and I know it’s going to end badly sooner or later. But we also have to remind ourselves that, over time, getting caught out long in a bear is a less costly than getting left behind in a bull. If you got out 3 or 4 years ago and let valuations and macro ‘possibilities’ keep you out, you’ve been in pain. I’m not trying to mock anyone with this, just pointing out that for institutional asset managers right now not enough beta is real talk.

So, bottom line is this is the backdrop I have to run with—or at least should try to run with—until abundantly indicated otherwise. In other words: be generous with the benefit of the doubt. Especially given that this is the phase when things could easily accelerate to the upside, as if often happens later in cycles. I know it’s natural for it to feel wrong to be bullish after such a run, but you’ve got to focus on playing the odds.

And frankly I like the embedded odds that the Fed won’t make a disruptive policy error. They could, but the market in the aggregate has convinced me that it’s still clinging to too much expectation/hope of one. Also, for the first time in a long time, you can’t dismiss out of hand the risk of inflation upside, making bonds a much more balanced bet. Lastly, if/as we move out the risk cycle from here, I would expect it to continue to impart a bearish bias to the dollar.

Basically, if these points are even close to being right, that’s AYNTK.

So you want to short bitcoin? Here’s your road map.

Do you think bitcoin is a bubble? Do you think the speculative crypto fever has broken? After last week’s price action, a lot of people—myself included—think the answer to these questions is Yes.

None of us really knows if this will prove to be the case. After all, bitcoin—the de facto benchmark in the space—has declined by 30% or more probably a dozen times since its inception, coming back stronger each time.

But this time feels different. It feels like a bubble. The fever in the post-Thanksgiving moonshot ran hotter than we’d seen before. We also began to see a robust supply response.  Bitcoin futures were also introduced, allowing investors to short or hedge their holdings for the first time. Maybe it’s a coincidence the ATH price in bitcoin came just before brokers allowed customers to short the futures last Monday morning, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Bubbles are complex dynamics. What they all have in common, however, is they require emotion to truly go parabolic. Moreover, the less we understand the object of the bubble, the greater the scope for greed and FOMO to fill in the blanks. It’s much easier to make a bubble out of TSLA than it is out of GM.

Accordingly, we’ve seen a lot of creative crypto narratives recently. But scrutiny brings knowledge, and knowledge kills bubbles. And over the past few weeks we have started to figure a few things out.

1.  You can be simultaneously bullish on blockchain and bearish on bitcoin.

2.  The supply of crypto tokens is not de facto fixed. If prices hold up, a rush of upside-capping supply is almost a certainty.

3.  Even if crypto currencies settle down and eventually become an adoptable medium of exchange, it’ll likely be emerging tokens, not bitcoin that will win that race by being quicker, more efficient, and more practical

So, if you believe that we’ve likely seen the highs in bitcoin and you want to go short, how do you go about it in a responsible way?

First, bitcoin is volatile. It’s annualized volatility is over 100%, implying daily moves up or down of over 6%. Second, bitcoin exchanges are open 24/7, but bitcoin futures follow regular Globex hours. Third, the exchanges have integrity risk (e.g. Mt Gox) and the futures have 20% collars. These last two factors increase gap/discontinuous pricing risk for those who trade the futures, even though I suspect these factors represent more risk for long positions in bitcoin futures than for short ones.

In sum, you have to be extra careful with bitcoin in your sizing and risk management.

I see two ways to play a bitcoin short. First, the longer-term play. In my experience the smart way to play bubbles is to short when the momentum fades on the first bounce after the fever breaks.

Here are two recent bubble charts, the NASDAQ 1998-2002 and Silver 2009-2013.

NASDAQ 100 (Dotcom bubble) 1999-2002
Silver (precious metal bubble) 2009-2013

You will see that the charts of the NASDAQ and silver (precious metals) share a  basic pattern: parabolic, fevered top, followed by a sharp drop and then a weak, protracted bounce channel as investors attempt to “recreate the magic”.

So the long-term play is to wait until the momentum in the bounce attempt has faded and it breaks down out of the bounce channel. This could come a lot faster in bitcoin because arguably the understanding of the underlying asset is more nebulous and the illusion factor was higher. But you never know. You have to size it small and hope you make the right call on the entry point.

Nearer term, the opportunities to short seem cleaner. Here are charts of XBT intraday over the past 31 sessions, and daily, over the past year.

Bitcoin, intra-day, last 31 sessions
Bitcoin, daily, over the past year

You can see on both charts there is heavy overhead in the 15,000-16,000 area. Going up into that area and then breaking down from it would be a logical trigger for a short. You could then set your stop and position size based on some rule that defines a violation of that pattern (e.g. two closes back up into the bounce channel).

The other near-term scenario is where bitcoin tries to get away from you on the downside. Given the faith-based nature of the asset, it is entirely possible that we get very little bounce here, and bitcoin continues to tumble. The dramatic fall late last week took less time than it does to say “cold storage”, leaving a lot of trapped sellers. Moreover, we knew NASDAQ and silver weren’t going to zero, but we can’t say the same about bitcoin–at least not with anywhere near the same degree of confidence. The odds of a continuation selloff are high.

So this is what you can do. Bitcoin closed at 14,240 on Friday, after an intra-day low down near 11, 000. If we close below 14,240, you can short it, betting that the unwind is not over. Again, you have to set a stop that makes sense at that point in time, and size your position accordingly. And you need to be mindful that it is quite possible bitcoin will trade weaker when the futures maket is open than when it is not. But you should not be afraid to chase. If it is truly a bubble, and the fever has now broken, there is still a lot of potential downside–however viable you might believe the underlying technology to be.

Of Patterns and Psychology: Shorting TSLA by the Numbers

I love tracking the assets that develop cult-like status. The kind where the narratives are powerful and the emotions run high, where our behavioral biases become most transparent. It’s why it impossible to take your eyes off of bitcoin these days.

But it’s also true for TSLA. Over the past two months, TSLA for me went from financial entertainment to an investment idea, and I wanted to walk followers through how that happened and how I’d manage it.

Back in October I noticed that TSLA was forming a bearish pattern. It made sense to short it based on the pattern alone.

One year chart of TSLA. The break is clear.

Since it’s not core to what I do, I did it in small size, mostly for sport. But as I tracked it it became clear to me that TSLA’s financial runway was getting shorter every time there was an announcement of a large car company making up ground in the EV space. And these announcements were becoming more frequent. It was equally clear that Elon Musk is the kind of guy who has a dream and would go for broke trying to achieve it. I wrote a quick post about it here.

So, with TSLA forming a large topping formation and with falling odds of achieving the ‘good’ binary outcome, it has become an attractive risk/reward short from both a fundamental and technical standpoint. I suspect that below 300 is where the TSLA fan boys would start to abandon ship.

Three year chart of TSLA, highlighting the forming top

The problem though, is that TSLA, if things do work out, could go Amazon on you, which for a short position would be deadly. So, you have to set parameters to manage the risk.

Here’s how I’d do it.

If you have no position, decide how much of your NAV you’re willing to lose if wrong. That’s the first thing you need to do. Then look at where a natural stop would be if you were to short some here. My read of the chart is you want to be totally out if 350—the top (roughly) of the current range. If I saw TSLA hit 350, I would be convinced that my topping scenario is not playing out. It might play out later, but it is not playing out now.

I would then size my initial position. TSLA is currently trading at ~330, so a break of 350 would generate a loss of 6%. As an example—because this is a very portfolio-specific choice—if I were willing to lose 50bps of NAV, this would allow me a position size of 8.3%.

If we hit 350, then you’re out and you’ve lost 50bps of performance. However, if you’re right and 300 breaks and the major top is completed, that means the odds of the Zero scenario have increased and you can add to the position.

This is how I would do add to it. If TSLA closes below 300 for two consecutive days, you can add to the short. I would—again this is a very portfolio-specific decision—double the position. I would then put a stop on the new portion of the position at a close back above 305. And I would lower my stop on the first portion of my position from 350 down to a close above 315. This would give you an all-in breakeven on the trade if the breakdown turned out to be false (which happens a fair amount), and a first target of 200 if the break plays out. Once you get to 200, you could then take profits on one half of the position, and let the rest run—after lowering the stop on it to 250.

I am not a TSLA expert. I have no emotion or pride invested in TSLA failing. In fact, I very much admire all of the amazing innovation Elon Musk has catalyzed. But patterns and the psychology drive most of my trading decisions, these factors are telling me TSLA is a good risk/reward short here.

The Vibe in Rates Has Changed. Know Yourself.

For the past few sessions we are seeing a new vibe creep into markets, driven by bonds.

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 US nominal yields have shot higher. Real yields have shot higher. Breakevens have shot higher. European bonds have shot higher. Yield curves have steepened. Unusually, the dollar has not rallied with US yields and precious metals have bounced from the pressure they were feeling last week. (Spreads between US and German yields have remained roughly unchanged).

Here is the yield on the German bund over the past one and 5 years. There’s a lot of scope for upside.

All of this is a very new, more inflationary vibe. Up until now, not only has the correlation between real yields and breakevens been negative (statistically very significant), but European bonds have tended to ignore increases in US yields. And any time US yields rose, the dollar reliably rallied.

The 5 year real yield and the 5 year breakeven are in the last two columns and rows, respectively.

It is tempting to say that this was catalyzed by the realization that the US tax package was going to pass, and do so against backdrop of synchronized global expansion with an infrastructure bill likely to be attempted in the New Year. And I think this is the right narrative—at least for now.

The question is how long will it last. Is it just another example of the markets belated overreaction to news that an efficient market would have discounted earlier, or is this something more real and the Phillip’s curve is finally being awakened from its slumber? After all, the US is moving along nicely in its economic cycle, president Trump seems determined to throw as much fuel on the US economy as possible, and Europe and Japan are likely to begin the normalization process 2018. And we know what an outsized role foreign flows have played in treasury yields.

I add to this that 2017 has been the first year since the GFC that taking the under on the Fed’s projected rate path was not the winning bet. This is important. The behavioral temptation for investors (and I very much include myself in this) who have been on the right side of that bet up until this year will be to dismiss it as an aberration, and assume ‘their world’ will reassert itself in 2018. As a general rule, the longer you hold on to your thesis, the harder it is to let go of it. And this is doubly true when your thesis has been working.

Personally, despite all this, I would still rather take the under with respect to the four projected US rate hikes in 2018, but my commitment to this thesis will now be heavily tempered by the recognition that this is the point in the cycle where I will be most vulnerable to confirmation bias.

Quantitative Tightening and Mortgages

The Federal Reserve currently holds about $2.5 trillion in Treasury securities and about $1.8 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. These securities were purchased in the aftermath of the GFC to help the Fed achieve its policy objectives once the Federal Funds rate ran into the ZLB.

In October, the unwind began.

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The Fed went from reinvesting all of the proceeds from maturing securities to reinvesting all but $10 billion every month for the first three months, with further reductions of monthly reinvestment by another $10 billion every three months after that. So, by Q4 2018 the amount non-reinvested will have climbed to $50 billion a month. The treasury/mortgage split within those amounts will be 60/40. All told, if things go to plan the Fed’s balance sheet will have been shrunk by about a half a trillion dollars by this time next year.

There was a lot of fear that the market would start discounting what people were calling Quantitative Tightening and that yields would start rising–perhaps disruptively–putting pressure on risky assets and economic activity.

It is against this backdrop that mortgage spreads jumped out at me. Granted, reducing your holdings by $4 billion a month should not have a huge mechanistic effect. But, allegedly, markets are forward looking and the Fed has a lot of mortgages hanging over the market.

Here is the mortgage spread on one and five year horizons:

Here I’ve taken the 30 year FNMA current coupon and subtracted the yield on the five-year treasury. I use the five year because the five to seven year area of the Treasury and swaps curves is the part of the curve that institutional investors use to hedge the duration of their mortgage books.

The collapse in mortgage spread since September speaks for itself. What we’ve seen is five-year yields increase by about 50bps while mortgage yields have stayed flat.

Some might be tempted to argue that the 50bps rise in the 5yr yield is the sign that QT is having an effect. But if the unwind of the Fed’s balance sheet were having the supply effect so many feared, you’d expect to see the yields on both rise with only a modest change in spread. Could it be that effects from the Fed’s balance sheet at this point–to the extent there are any at all–are mostly about signalling and psychology?