I wanted to follow up briefly on the bitcoin post from December.
To me it still looks like a bearish pattern has to finish playing out. Just going by the pattern–and bitcoin has been textbook both on the way up and on the way down–it looks like there’s at least one good down-leg left.
The reason bitcoin has adhered so well to textbook stock patterns is because there are no fundamentals and the emotions run very high. Basically it gives you an exceptionally clean read on sentiment.
If you’re short, though, remember to keep your size in check because in this last bounce alone it has been oscillating between 10 and 14k. Makes it really hard to hang onto if you’re carrying any size.
Here’s the chart: