June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
February 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
June 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
- Update on Bitcoin $XBT $BTC
- The Euro: Just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean you should fade it
- Tricks for Hanging On in a Melt Up
- Behavioral Autos: $F $GM
- Of Bubbles and Polls
- What’s up with the dollar and yields?
- 2018. You ready?
December 2017
- So you want to short bitcoin? Here’s your road map.
- Of Patterns and Psychology: Shorting TSLA by the Numbers
- The Vibe in Rates Has Changed. Know Yourself.
- Quantitative Tightening and Mortgages
- The Easy Macro Policy Hack
- The Dollar, the Euro and Rates
- How much economic info is there in the yield curve?
- TSLA – Closing Below 300 is a Big Deal
- Oil Stocks – This Time of Year Investors Love to Play the Laggard
- The Last Post on Gold
November 2017
- Fed Chairman Powell – AYNTK
- Currency Update: Changes in Narrative
- Official Roll Out of the New Blog
- Market Update: We’re All Short Gamma
- The Anatomy of a Trade: Copper
October 2017
- Approaching Critical Short-Term Levels in Precious Metals
- Tax Cuts, Fed Chair, the Dollar and Bonds. En Garde.
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
- Credit Spreads and Sticker Shock
- Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, and the EM risk Cycle
- Quick Thought on Oil Stocks
- Going All Macro, All the Time
- Where We Are in the Emerging Market and Big Dollar Cycle
- 15 Things Global Macro Investors Should Have Learned from The Great Financial Crisis and Aftermath
- Of Currency Markets and Central Banks
December 2016
- Part 3 of interview with Jeremy Schwartz
- Part 2 of interview with Jeremy Schwartz
- Interview with Jeremy Schwartz
October 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
September 2015
- The Fed, International Weakness, and the Impotence of Monetary Policy
- Emerging Markets Back-to-School Special: The Three Factors to Look For
August 2015
- I believe two things (and that might be enough)
- Views on the Big Dollar (and the euro)
- China’s FX Paradigm Shift: What Are They Doing?
- The Curious Case of Silver Coins
- Why Emerging Markets Won’t Crash
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
February 2015
January 2015
- Calling Out the Europe-Wags-US Bond Story
- Simple is Good (EM and Commodities)
- Podcast of 2015 Broad Outline. Warning: Contains Nuance
December 2014
November 2014
September 2014
June 2014
May 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
July 2013
June 2013
- Gold: Thinking about how far we fall
- Trading Fixed Income: Falling Knives, and EM local (market views)
May 2013
- Market update for a friend
- There is zero correlation between the Fed printing and the money supply. Deal with it.
- 2s-10s, the update
- You Don’t Really Understand the Carry Trade, Do You?
April 2013
- Everything you think you know about the Fed is wrong
- Video: Introspection – 2010 vs. now
- Gold and Silver – where do we go from here?
March 2013
- 2s-10s: be vwery, vwery afwaid
- Looking to add equity risk but are afraid at these levels? Look to copper and the Commodity Unwind
- AAPL and Gold: Still all about Bubble Psychology
February 2013
- Framework for Thinking about the Buck: It’s an Overhang, not a Hangover
- The Case against Commodities and Emerging Markets
- Cash Hurts–but so does Crash: Market update
- Update of the Structural Bear-killer post
January 2013
- Four charts tell a powerful story of where we are. They all say “It’s Structural this time”
- Surprise! (index): Update
- The Effects of QE on UST Yields—Now the Answers Start to Matter
December 2012
- Trading note on Silver and Gold (A quick post from il Bel Paese)
- Sentiment and trading views, feat. Gold, Silver, AAPL and Mortgage REITs
- The Other Big Lie
- AIG/TARP/Stress Test: C’mon, say it. Thank you Tim Geithner, Hank Paulson, and Ben Bernanke
- Berlusconi: Why He’s no Donald Trump
November 2012
September 2012
August 2012
- Toxic migration and the bull case
- One thing about Paul Ryan’s nomination that really matters
- Why are Global Macro hedge funds struggling?
- Back in the Saddle
July 2012
June 2012
- Europe Is “Like the Drowning Man,” Dow Says: Policymakers Fix Engine on Car with Faulty Brakes
- A quick example on base money and money supply
- A Framework for thinking about Gold and Silver
- What if the Fed doesn’t throw a party and everyone comes? (market view)
- The takeaway: Germany is pot committed
- Quick market comment on the Spanish rescate
- Bernanke, breakevens, and volatility
- How you can go broke taking profits. Really. Reflection effects.
- Euro. It’s a Design flaw. And it’s fatal
May 2012
- The Book List
- IMF and Spain – putting on the face paint
- More Greek Cognitive Illusion: What they really think about Germany
- Reagan’s gone. You’re old. Get over it.
- Big, Fat Cognitive Illusion (and all of us are more Greek than we think)
- Chinese growth: of Panda Huggers and Muggers:
- MARK DOW: Another Grim Year for 2012–Even For Commodities
- Was JPM hedging, unhedging, or speculating?
- Why we misinterpret Chinese RRR cuts
- Intro to my Behavioral Macro microblog